中国股市“分红大革命”

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market has been fluctuating within a certain range over the past decade, primarily due to the neglect of shareholder interests. Recent trends indicate a shift towards increased dividends and stock buybacks, creating a re-evaluation atmosphere for Chinese stocks, akin to a "dividend revolution" [1][5]. Group 1: Dividend and Buyback Trends - Over 1,000 state-owned enterprises have established plans for shareholder returns, representing about 20% of approximately 5,400 listed companies. The total dividend amount for the fiscal year 2024 is expected to reach 2.4 trillion yuan, an 80% increase from five years ago and three times that of ten years ago. The average dividend yield is close to 3% based on the total market capitalization of listed companies in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing [2]. - The number of companies implementing stock buybacks in 2024 is projected to reach 1,500, with a total amount of 140 billion yuan, marking a historical high. Despite the lower momentum of buybacks compared to Japan and the U.S., the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 20% from its lowest point in February 2024 [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment and Corporate Response - The Chinese securities regulatory authorities are pushing for companies to return profits to shareholders, learning from the Tokyo Stock Exchange's practices. The State Council updated the capital market revitalization policy for the first time in ten years, introducing strict measures for companies with low or no dividends [3]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has mandated that companies with a price-to-book ratio (PBR) below 1 must develop and disclose improvement plans. The focus of regulatory work is on being "strong" and "strict" [3]. Group 3: Economic Context and Corporate Performance - The Chinese leadership faces urgent circumstances, with a strong motivation to boost the stock market amid a weak real estate sector and sluggish consumer growth. A survey of 2,700 listed companies revealed a double-digit decline in profit expectations for the fiscal year 2024 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) for Chinese companies was below 8% for the fiscal year 2023. Despite economic slowdowns and challenges from U.S. relations, the gap in ROE between Chinese and Japanese companies is only about 2% [4].