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特朗普,签了!价格疯涨,比黄金还猛
21世纪经济报道·2025-02-26 12:41

Core Viewpoint - COMEX copper has recently experienced a significant premium compared to LME copper and Shanghai copper futures, driven by supply disruptions and U.S. government investigations into copper imports [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements and Market Dynamics - On February 26, COMEX copper surged by 4.9%, reaching 4.732 cents per pound, equivalent to $10,432 per ton, which is nearly $1,000 higher than LME copper during the same period [2][3]. - The year-to-date increase in COMEX copper prices stands at 17%, significantly outperforming LME copper's 7.98% and Shanghai copper's 4.23% [10]. - The price disparity between COMEX and LME copper has led to an increase in arbitrage activities, with more shipments directed towards the U.S. market [5][11]. Group 2: Supply Chain Disruptions - A large-scale power outage in Chile on February 25 affected several major copper mines, disrupting mining operations in the world's largest copper-producing country [4][18]. - The COMEX copper inventory has reached a historical high, exceeding 100,000 tons, indicating a potential for further increases in the future [6][12]. Group 3: U.S. Government Investigations - The U.S. initiated a Section 232 investigation into copper imports, which may lead to new tariffs and further impact copper prices and supply chains [3][8]. - The investigation is expected to focus on major copper suppliers from the Americas, including Chile, Mexico, and Canada, while Chinese brands currently have minimal direct impact on COMEX [14]. Group 4: Company Performance and Growth - The recent price increases are likely to enhance profitability for copper-related companies in the first quarter, with a high probability of year-on-year profit growth [21][23]. - Chinese copper companies, such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, have shown significant production growth, with Zijin Mining expected to produce 115,000 tons of copper in 2025, a 7.5% increase from 2024 [24][27]. - Luoyang Molybdenum is also projected to enter the top ten global copper producers, with a production target of 65,000 tons [25].