2025年商品交易宏观逻辑与库存周期水位，商品为什么大跌？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the macroeconomic inventory cycle and its impact on commodity trading, highlighting the challenges in relying on U.S. demand to drive global economic growth in 2025 due to low inventory levels in China and potential recession risks in the U.S. [3][10] Group 1: Macro Inventory Cycle - The macro inventory cycle is crucial for understanding systemic risks in commodities, with historical trading logic based on inventory changes leading to various market phenomena [4][11]. - The article outlines different macro trading logics for various years, including U.S. recession in 2024 and China's inventory reduction in 2023 [5][6][10]. Group 2: Commodity Trading Phenomena - Several unusual phenomena in commodity trading are identified, such as significant price drops despite low inventory levels and high inventory not leading to price increases [11][12]. - A model developed to explain these phenomena shows a correlation between basis rates and commodity prices, indicating that understanding when to focus on supply-demand logic versus macro logic is essential [14]. Group 3: U.S. Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators from the U.S. show mixed signals, with manufacturing PMI at a 17-month high while service sector PMI has declined significantly [26][27]. - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has dropped for three consecutive months, reaching its lowest level since June 2024, indicating potential economic challenges ahead [28]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that if issues arise in the Western economy, the probability of such events may be higher than previously thought, with a potential shift of capital from the West to the East beginning in 2025 [29].