债市持续下跌！机构：短期调整或不改中长期趋势

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant short-term adjustments, with rising government bond yields and a tightening liquidity environment impacting fund performance [1][3][9]. Group 1: Market Adjustments - As of February 26, the 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.71% and the 30-year yield to 1.91%, indicating a notable increase since February 5 [1]. - The pure bond funds have seen a maximum decline of over 2% in the past week, with more than 80 medium to long-term pure bond funds dropping over 1% in net value [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing the Bond Market - Tight liquidity is a direct factor for the current bond market adjustment, with the central bank's fund injection falling short of market demand, leading to concerns about future liquidity [3]. - The DR007 rate is at 2.33%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield, resulting in an inversion that has contributed to the market's downturn [3]. - The "spring market" has increased risk appetite, diverting funds from the bond market due to structural trends in the equity market driven by technology sector growth [4]. Group 3: Wealth Management and Redemption Risks - The overall performance of the wealth management market remains stable, with only 3.48% of products in the market being below par, indicating limited redemption risks [6]. - The rapid recovery of wealth management scale post-Spring Festival suggests that redemption pressures are manageable, supported by previous market experiences [6][7]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Industry experts believe the current bond market adjustment is short-term, with a positive long-term outlook remaining intact due to ongoing monetary policy support and economic recovery [9][10]. - The expected stabilization range for the 10-year government bond yield is between 1.65% and 1.75%, with core fluctuations projected between 1.5% and 1.9% throughout the year [9].