难逃周期的高空作业平台

Core Viewpoint - The aerial work platform industry has experienced a golden decade from 2013 to 2023, but it is now facing challenges due to market saturation and declining demand in key regions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Historical Growth and Market Dynamics - From 2013 to 2017, growth was primarily driven by mature markets in Europe and North America, with significant demand for replacement due to new emission regulations [2]. - The period from 2018 to 2021 saw a surge in demand from China, while the growth from 2021 to 2024 is expected to be led by the United States [2][3]. - The domestic market for aerial work platforms has shown less volatility compared to earthmoving machinery, maintaining steady sales despite a downturn in real estate and infrastructure [3][4]. Group 2: Rental Market Insights - The rental market for aerial work platforms is characterized by a duopoly, with major players holding significant market shares, and rental rates have been declining, indicating oversupply [8][9]. - The rental utilization rate has been on a downward trend, with projections for 2024 indicating a further decline, which could lead to the exit of smaller rental companies [12]. Group 3: Export Challenges and Tariffs - The European Union has initiated anti-dumping and countervailing investigations against Chinese aerial work platforms, leading to increased tariffs that could impact competitiveness [16][17]. - Companies that have localized production in Europe are better positioned to mitigate tariff impacts, with some achieving significant reductions in their tariff rates [18][19]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Future Trends - The aerial work platform market is facing a triple challenge: cooling domestic construction in China, policy pressures in Europe, and limited growth in the Belt and Road Initiative markets [25]. - The U.S. market is showing signs of slowdown, with the infrastructure investment act losing momentum, which could affect future growth prospects for aerial work platforms [24].