中泰资管天团 | 唐军：希望像桥水那样在“回报流”上做真正的配置

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a diversified asset allocation strategy, highlighting the performance of various asset classes, particularly gold and equities, in the current market environment [2][3][4]. Group 1: Asset Performance - COMEX gold ranked second in 2024 with a return of 27.65%, closely trailing the Nasdaq index [2]. - The asset allocation strategy of fund manager Tang Jun has evolved, with gold being a significant holding, peaking at nearly 18% mid-2024, but later decreasing to 13.71% by the end of Q4 2024 [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - Tang Jun's investment approach is characterized by a "top-down" strategy that emphasizes low correlation among underlying assets, distinguishing it from traditional FOF managers [8][10]. - He focuses on the concept of "return streams," which involves optimizing risk and enhancing portfolio performance by reducing correlation among assets [10][65]. Group 3: Macro and Micro Analysis - The macroeconomic factors influencing asset allocation include monetary policy and credit expansion, which have become more significant than traditional economic cycles [44][46]. - Tang Jun's framework for asset allocation is structured into three levels: macroeconomic drivers, expectation differences, and low-correlation return streams [106]. Group 4: Tactical Adjustments - Tactical adjustments in asset allocation are made based on market conditions, with a focus on maintaining a disciplined approach to risk management [51][88]. - The strategy includes a dynamic adjustment of asset weights based on macroeconomic indicators and market sentiment, such as the performance of small-cap stocks and the behavior of retail investors [37][39]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The outlook for 2025 suggests that domestic asset allocation will depend on credit expansion, while international considerations will focus on U.S. fiscal policies and their impact on inflation and risk assets [101][103].