9.9元咖啡大战继续

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese coffee market is exhibiting unique characteristics, with the impact of soaring coffee bean prices being relatively muted compared to international markets [2][5]. Group 1: Coffee Bean Price Trends - The International Coffee Organization reported a 75.8% year-on-year increase in the coffee price index as of January 2025, with the average ICO composite indicator price at 310.12 cents per pound [6]. - As of February 11, 2024, Arabica coffee futures prices exceeded 430 cents per pound, marking a 118.57% increase over the past year [6]. - Brazil's coffee prices reached a historical high of 2769.45 reals per 60 kg bag, the highest since records began in 1996 [6]. Group 2: Domestic Market Response - In contrast to international markets, domestic companies like Kudi and Luckin Coffee have managed to maintain stable pricing strategies despite rising coffee bean costs [10][12]. - Kudi Coffee has achieved positive cash flow since May 2024, with significant revenue growth primarily from service fees [10]. - Luckin Coffee's CEO stated that the overall impact of coffee bean prices is manageable, and the company has no plans for price increases [10][12]. Group 3: Cost Structure and Management - The cost structure of coffee production includes raw materials, rent, and labor, with coffee bean costs being a manageable portion of the overall expenses [11]. - Kudi has implemented cost control measures by producing various materials in-house and transitioning to smaller store formats to reduce rent [11]. - Luckin Coffee has secured a memorandum for the procurement of 240,000 tons of coffee beans from Brazil, enhancing its supply chain resilience [12]. Group 4: Consumer Preferences and Market Dynamics - Chinese consumers show a preference for milk-based coffee drinks, which mitigates the impact of rising coffee bean prices since these drinks require less coffee bean content [13]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with new entrants like Mixue Ice City entering the coffee market, prompting existing players to increase brand and marketing investments [20][21]. - Despite the challenges posed by rising coffee bean prices, the ongoing price war among coffee brands continues, with both Kudi and Luckin maintaining their 9.9 yuan pricing strategy [18][19].