房价下跌三年！这个一线城市，忍不住了！

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong has implemented significant tax reductions in the real estate sector to stimulate the market, including lowering the stamp duty for properties valued up to 4 million HKD, reflecting a 99.8% tax reduction for this segment [1][3][6]. Group 1: Tax Policy Changes - The stamp duty for properties valued up to 4 million HKD has been reduced to a flat fee of 100 HKD, down from a previous rate of 1.5% [2][3]. - The mortgage down payment requirements have been adjusted, allowing for a higher loan-to-value ratio for properties under 15 million HKD, reducing the down payment from 50% to 30% [9][10]. - Additional measures include extending the maximum mortgage term for second-hand properties and reducing the stamp duty for permanent residents from 15% to 7.5% [11][12]. Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - Despite the tax reductions, Hong Kong's real estate market continues to face challenges, with transaction volumes fluctuating significantly, showing a 43% decline in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the previous quarter [17][18]. - Property prices have been on a downward trend since peaking in 2022, with average prices in Kowloon and New Territories dropping over 6%, while the decline in Hong Kong Island was around 3.8% [20][19]. - The overall housing market is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with a reported shortfall of approximately 40,000 housing units despite having over 200,000 existing units [44]. Group 3: Economic Context and Challenges - The decline in property prices is attributed to multiple factors, including prolonged economic downturns, rising interest rates, and a significant outflow of capital [27][33]. - Hong Kong's economy contracted by 2.6% in the first half of 2022, with a population decrease of 68,300 people during the same period [29][30]. - The financial sector's dominance in the economy has led to a reliance on real estate as collateral, complicating efforts to increase housing supply without risking a financial crisis [45][46]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future of Hong Kong's real estate market remains uncertain, heavily influenced by U.S. interest rate policies, with indications that rates may not decrease in the short term [36][38]. - Long-term prospects may improve if interest rates are lowered, but the market's fundamental characteristics suggest it is prone to rapid fluctuations [41][42]. - The structural issues in land supply and the influence of major property developers pose significant barriers to resolving the housing crisis [44][46].