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半导体行业观察·2025-02-28 03:08

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock has faced significant pressure following a disappointing quarterly forecast, leading to a decline of over 8% and raising concerns about the broader tech sector's performance, particularly among the "Magnificent Seven" stocks [2][3]. Financial Performance - Nvidia's first-quarter revenue forecast is better than market expectations, with an anticipated revenue increase of approximately 65%, although this is a slowdown compared to the previous year's triple-digit growth [3][4]. - The company's revenue for the previous quarter was reported at $39.33 billion, exceeding expectations by 3.4% and showing over 7% growth year-on-year [6]. - Nvidia's CEO highlighted that the demand for the new Blackwell chips is "astonishing," yet the overall growth is decelerating [3][7]. Market Sentiment - Analysts express a cautious outlook on Nvidia, with concerns that the company's performance and guidance are not sufficient to reignite investor confidence and drive stock prices higher [4][5]. - Despite the challenges, Nvidia is still viewed as a bellwether for AI spending health, with its stock price reflecting a lower price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 29 times expected earnings, down from over 80 times two years ago [8]. Product Development - Nvidia is on track to release the Blackwell Ultra GPU later this year, which is expected to provide significant performance improvements, with unofficial reports suggesting a performance boost of around 50% compared to the previous B200 series [10][11]. - The upcoming Rubin architecture is anticipated to enhance AI computing capabilities, with the first generation of Rubin GPUs expected to feature up to 288GB of HBM4E memory by 2026 [11][12]. - Nvidia plans to discuss the Rubin architecture and its subsequent products at the upcoming GPU Technology Conference (GTC) [11].