关税风险重创美股，“七巨头”市值蒸发近5500亿美元

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of President Trump's tariff policies on the U.S. economy and financial markets, highlighting the volatility in the markets and the resurgence of "stagflation" concerns due to recent economic data and tariff implications [2][10]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Trump's announcement of tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the U.S. dollar surged, with the Dollar Index rising by 0.78% on February 27, marking its largest single-day increase in over two months [2]. - U.S. stock markets experienced significant declines, with the Nasdaq Composite dropping over 2% and the market capitalization of the "Big Seven" tech companies evaporating by nearly $550 billion [2]. - The Asia-Pacific markets also faced declines, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index falling by 2.88%, and South Korea's KOSPI index dropping by 3.39%, the largest single-day decline since August 2014 [2]. Group 2: Tariff Policy Implications - The article emphasizes that tariff measures can directly affect market sentiment, leading to increased demand for the dollar as a safe haven and causing market downturns due to uncertainty about future trade environments and economic growth [8]. - Analysts suggest that the actual implementation of tariff policies may be influenced by various factors, including domestic political pressures and international negotiations, which could lead to a situation where the impact is less severe than anticipated [9]. - If negotiations with Canada and Mexico yield positive results, market sentiment may improve, potentially leading to a rebound in stock prices [9]. Group 3: Stagflation Concerns - Recent U.S. economic data has shown unexpected weakness, raising concerns about the potential for "stagflation," particularly in light of Trump's tariff policies and their inflationary effects [11]. - The article notes that the core PCE price index for Q4 2024 was revised upward from 2.5% to 2.7%, indicating rising inflation concerns [12]. - Analysts warn that if tariffs lead to sustained price increases while economic growth slows, the risk of stagflation will increase [12]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Challenges - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, as it must balance controlling inflation with supporting economic growth [15]. - The Fed's focus remains on combating inflation, which is currently prioritized over maintaining employment levels [16]. - Future interest rate cuts may be delayed until key indicators, such as inflation data and economic growth, show a clear trend [16].