43个月新高！平均溢价率首破13%，什么信号？

Core Viewpoint - The average premium rate for land transactions in key cities has reached a new high of 13.4%, driven by high-premium sales of high-total-price land parcels in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, marking the first time since July 2021 that the average premium rate has exceeded 10% [2][3]. Group 1: Land Transaction Data - In February, despite a continuous decline in land transaction area, high-premium sales in major cities led to a year-on-year increase in land transaction amounts, with a total transaction amount of 91.7 billion yuan, up 39% year-on-year [3]. - The average floor price reached 4019 yuan per square meter, a 48% increase compared to the same period last month, due to a higher proportion of premium land transactions in first and second-tier cities [3]. - The average premium rate in monitored cities increased by 4.7 percentage points from the previous month, marking a significant rise [3]. Group 2: High-Premium Land Transactions - Major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou each had transaction amounts exceeding 10 billion yuan, with six out of the top ten cities in terms of transaction amount having average premium rates above 10% [4]. - Notably, the land parcel in Hangzhou's Chengdong New City achieved a premium rate of 72.5%, while a parcel in Zhengzhou's Jinshui District reached an 87% premium rate, the highest in nearly three years [4]. - Shanghai is set to potentially break its land price record with a new parcel priced at 160,000 yuan per square meter if it passes the public notice period [4]. Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The land market's heat is expected to continue in the first half of the year, with a focus on high-premium land parcels in first and second-tier cities, while third and fourth-tier cities primarily see transactions at base prices [5][6]. - The market is experiencing a divergence in heat, reflecting differences in local stabilization efforts, with first and second-tier cities adopting strategies to supply quality land in smaller batches [5]. - Predictions indicate that the trend of high-premium transactions will expand from core city areas to surrounding regions with low inventory and strong purchasing power, leading to a potential recovery in land prices [6].