美股即将崩盘，正处于“超级泡沫”！传奇投资大佬警告

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is currently in a "super bubble," with a significant downturn predicted, as stated by renowned investor Jeremy Grantham [1][2]. Valuation Concerns - Grantham highlights that U.S. stock valuations have surpassed historical peaks, exceeding levels seen in 1929 and 2021, and are only second to Japan's 1989 bubble [1][3]. - Traditional valuation metrics, including the Shiller P/E ratio, are at historical highs, with most indicators in the top 1% or 2% of their historical ranges [3][5]. - Grantham's models suggest that the U.S. stock market has a potential downside of 50% to return to normal valuation levels [5]. Long-term Economic Trends - Grantham expresses concern over the long-term impact of declining population, which he believes will lead to a loss of "animal spirits," resulting in slower economic growth and decreased productivity [1][8]. - He notes that a declining labor force directly affects GDP growth, citing that Europe's labor force has decreased by nearly 0.5% over the past 15 years, leading to a 2% decline in GDP growth [9]. Investment Strategies - In light of potential market declines, Grantham advises investors to focus on companies with long-term growth potential and strong financial health, particularly in the green economy sector [6]. - He warns against excessive leverage, suggesting that investors should choose companies with lower debt levels and higher profit margins to withstand market shocks [7]. Global Market Perspective - Despite a pessimistic view on U.S. stocks, Grantham sees non-U.S. markets as relatively reasonable and believes they may outperform U.S. markets in the next 5 to 10 years [11]. - Grantham views cryptocurrencies as speculative instruments rather than viable mediums of exchange, criticizing the influx of capital into this market during the 2020 stimulus period [11]. Gold vs. Bitcoin - Grantham expresses a cautious stance on gold but considers it a better hedge asset compared to Bitcoin, acknowledging that both are largely speculative [12].