PMI：无喜无忧、结构分化

Core Viewpoint - The February PMI shows a mild recovery post-Spring Festival, with a clear "strong-weak" differentiation in structure [2][9]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery, albeit moderate [5][16]. - Key sub-indices such as production and new orders showed significant recovery, with production index increasing by 2.7 percentage points to 52.5% and new orders index rising by 1.9 percentage points to 51.1% [5][16]. - The new export orders index remains in contraction at 48.6%, despite a 2.2 percentage point increase [5][17]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 50.4%, with construction PMI showing a notable rise of 3.4 percentage points to 52.7% [5][18]. - Service sector PMI declined by 0.3 percentage points to 50.0%, with significant drops in consumer-related sectors such as retail, accommodation, and catering [4][19]. Industry Observations - Capital-intensive industries like high-tech and equipment manufacturing show higher PMI levels, while labor-intensive sectors such as consumer goods and high-energy industries remain below the expansion threshold [3][12]. - In the construction sector, the increase in the construction PMI indicates accelerated infrastructure work, while real estate performance appears weaker [3][13]. Future Outlook - The economic recovery foundation remains fragile, with potential export risks increasing. Continuous monitoring of incremental policy changes is necessary [4][15]. - The manufacturing PMI's slight recovery above the neutral line suggests a moderate recovery level, with ongoing export pressures evident [4][15].