关税翻倍：政策如何对冲？（民生宏观陶川团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of the U.S. increasing tariffs on China to 20%, particularly focusing on the economic implications and China's response strategies [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - A 20% tariff could reduce China's nominal GDP by approximately 0.69 percentage points, translating to a potential real GDP growth reduction of about 0.49 percentage points, assuming no other variables change [1][5]. - The estimated impact on total export growth could range from -2.61% to -4.70%, depending on the elasticity of export prices [2]. - Key industries such as chemicals, textiles, and machinery, which have a higher export share to the U.S. (10-15%), are expected to face significant challenges due to the tariffs [2][3]. Group 2: China's Response Strategies - China has adopted a principle of rapid response and precise countermeasures against U.S. tariffs, including retaliatory tariffs on U.S. coal and fuel [3][4]. - Measures include anti-monopoly investigations targeting major U.S. tech companies and export controls on critical minerals needed for U.S. military and high-tech manufacturing [3][4]. Group 3: Future Macro Policy Considerations - The Chinese government is currently in a wait-and-see mode regarding macroeconomic policies, with no immediate need for intervention as the economy shows signs of stabilization [5]. - If the tariffs are fully implemented, it is estimated that fiscal measures would need to be between 0.62 trillion to 1.33 trillion yuan to offset the economic impact, with a median estimate of 0.98 trillion yuan being a suitable scale for counteraction [5].