固态电池｜全固态电池有望27年装车，把握电池、材料、设备、资源端投资机会

Core Viewpoint - The industry consensus on the timeline for solid-state battery deployment has converged to 2027 for small-scale production and 2030 for large-scale commercialization, indicating a clearer technological roadmap and increased demand for lithium resources and equipment [1][2][11]. Group 1: Solid-State Battery Deployment Expectations - Leading battery manufacturers and experts have indicated that solid-state batteries are expected to begin small-scale production by 2027, with large-scale commercialization anticipated by 2030 [2]. - The convergence of expectations suggests a clearer technological path, transitioning from single sulfide to mixed sulfide and halide materials, which will drive demand for lithium battery equipment and resources [2]. Group 2: Materials Sector - The materials sector is expected to develop along two main lines: the establishment of new solid-state electrolyte routes and the shared materials benefiting from the solid-state battery industry [3][4]. - The solid-state electrolyte routes are likely to stabilize, with a focus on sulfide materials by major players like CATL and BYD, while conductive agents and silicon anodes are projected to see increased usage in solid-state batteries [4]. Group 3: Equipment Sector - The lithium battery equipment sector is showing signs of recovery, with expectations for a dual rebound in orders and performance by 2025 as major manufacturers ramp up production capacity [5][6]. - The transition to solid-state battery manufacturing is expected to drive new investment in equipment, particularly as the industry prepares for significant advancements in production technology [6]. Group 4: Resource Sector - The demand for zirconium, a key raw material for oxide electrolytes, is projected to increase significantly, with expectations of reaching 78,000 tons by 2030, which is 395 times the demand in 2023 [7]. - The industrialization of sulfide and lithium metal anodes is expected to double lithium consumption, with significant advancements in production capabilities being reported [7]. Group 5: Future Events in the Solid-State Battery Industry - Major events in 2025 include the unveiling of Hyundai's solid-state battery production line and the Shanghai Auto Show, which are anticipated to be key platforms for solid-state battery developments [8]. - The introduction of new models featuring semi-solid-state batteries by SAIC's MG brand is expected to occur in Q2 2025, potentially marking a significant milestone in the commercialization of semi-solid-state battery technology [8].