行业透视｜50城库存下降11%，京穗汉宁等外围或小面积去化仍承压

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is currently in a de-stocking cycle due to restricted new housing supply, with a notable decline in inventory across 50 key cities, but cities like Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Nanjing still face significant de-stocking challenges due to high inventory levels and extended de-stocking periods [2][4][17]. Inventory Trends - As of January 2025, the narrow inventory in 50 cities decreased to 31,093 million square meters, reflecting a 1% month-on-month decline and an 11% year-on-year decline [4][17]. - The de-stocking cycle for these cities remains high, with periods exceeding 20 months, indicating ongoing challenges in inventory reduction [4][17]. Inventory Structure by Area - In Guangzhou and Wuhan, the main inventory consists of medium-sized units (100-140 square meters), while Nanjing faces significant inventory pressure from small units (below 70 square meters) [6][12]. - Specifically, as of January 2025, Guangzhou's inventory for 100-120 square meters accounted for 21.64%, and Wuhan's for 100-140 square meters was nearly 60% [6][12]. Regional Inventory Characteristics - Guangzhou's and Wuhan's peripheral areas, such as Guangzhou's Zengcheng and Wuhan's Dongxihu, show high inventory levels, with Zengcheng at 23.12% and Dongxihu at 14.28% as of January 2025, both increasing from the previous year [8][10]. - Nanjing's Jiangning district has the highest inventory proportion at 21.2%, indicating a significant accumulation of stock in this area [10][11]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply-demand mismatch is evident in Guangzhou and Wuhan's peripheral areas, while Nanjing's mismatch is primarily in the size segment, with small units (below 70 square meters) showing a significant oversupply [12][15]. - In Nanjing, the inventory of small hotel-style apartments reached 29.2% as of January 2025, while the transaction volume for this segment was below 10%, indicating a high likelihood of de-stocking difficulties [16][17]. Conclusion - Overall, the real estate market is still in a de-stocking phase, with Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Nanjing facing unique challenges. Guangzhou and Wuhan have high inventory in peripheral areas, while Nanjing struggles with small unit oversupply, particularly in hotel-style apartments, which may face increased de-stocking pressure in the future [17].