全球大储的战争，一场涉及万亿市场的激烈博弈｜万字深度

Core Viewpoint - The global energy transition is accelerating, with large-scale energy storage (ESS) becoming a critical component in addressing the challenges posed by renewable energy integration and ensuring grid stability [1][3][4]. Group 1: Global Energy Trends - The electrification trend is increasing globally, particularly in emerging markets like China, India, and Southeast Asia, driving up electricity demand [1]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global electricity consumption growth will reach 4% in both 2024 and 2025, the highest rate since 2007 [1]. - The global consensus on "carbon neutrality" is reshaping the energy landscape, with 151 countries having set carbon neutrality targets covering 92% of global GDP, 89% of the population, and 88% of emissions as of September 2023 [2]. Group 2: Renewable Energy Growth - The installed capacity of renewable energy, particularly wind and solar, has seen significant growth, with global installations increasing from 115.2 GW in 2015 to 461.8 GW in 2023, representing a compound annual growth rate of 19.0% [2]. - The European Union has set ambitious renewable energy targets, increasing the share of renewables in energy consumption to 45% by 2030 [5]. Group 3: Energy Storage as a Solution - Energy storage, especially large-scale storage, is viewed as a key solution to the challenges of renewable energy integration, particularly in regions where grid infrastructure is lagging [3][4]. - The European storage market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a 205% increase in large-scale storage installations by 2024 [15][16]. Group 4: Regional Developments - Italy plans to deploy approximately 50 GW of solar and 16 GW of wind energy by 2030, with significant investments in storage infrastructure to support this growth [6]. - Germany's large-scale storage projects are expected to see a 158% year-on-year increase in new installations by 2025, driven by favorable project returns [7]. - Spain aims to increase the share of renewables in its energy mix to 81% by 2030, with storage capacity targets raised to 22.5 GW [8]. Group 5: Challenges and Market Dynamics - Despite the growth in renewable energy, issues such as intermittency and grid stability remain significant challenges, necessitating advancements in storage technology and infrastructure [3][4]. - The U.S. energy storage market is projected to see a 68% year-on-year increase in installations in 2024, driven by policy support and market demand [17][21]. - The U.S. is experiencing a shift from coal to renewable energy, with a significant portion of coal-fired plants expected to retire by 2035, further emphasizing the need for energy storage solutions [17][18]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The demand for large-scale storage in the U.S. is expected to remain strong, with planned projects exceeding 600 GW, indicating a robust market potential [22][23]. - The global energy transition is anticipated to continue, with storage solutions playing a pivotal role in achieving renewable energy targets and ensuring grid reliability [3][4][22].