Wind万得·2025-03-02 22:40Core Viewpoint - The upcoming National Two Sessions in 2025 are expected to bring significant opportunities in the capital market, with analysts expressing optimism about China's asset attractiveness and focusing on economic growth targets, fiscal policy, and monetary policy [1] Macroeconomic Focus - Economic Growth: Most institutions predict a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, with a weighted average growth target calculated at 5.3% based on local targets [2] - Inflation Target: CPI targets are expected to be lowered to around 2% for 2025, down from previous years' targets of approximately 3% [3] Fiscal Policy Focus - Deficit Rate: Analysts anticipate an increase in the deficit rate to around 4% for 2025, with new special bond issuance expected to rise to approximately 4.2 to 4.5 trillion yuan [3] - Spending Direction: Fiscal policy is expected to focus on promoting consumption and driving technological innovation, with measures such as supporting trade-in programs to boost consumer spending [4] Monetary Policy Focus - Monetary Policy Stance: The prevailing view is that monetary policy will maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, but these actions may be delayed until after the Two Sessions [5][6] Capital Market Investment Opportunities - Technology Sector: The technology growth sector, particularly around AI and robotics, is expected to remain a hotspot, with increasing attractiveness of Chinese AI assets [6] - Consumer Sector: With enhanced fiscal policy efforts, consumer growth is anticipated to accelerate, supported by government measures like vehicle purchase subsidies [7] - Capital Market Reforms: The Two Sessions may lead to further improvements in the capital market's "1+N" institutional framework, promoting mergers and acquisitions and fostering a healthy market environment [8]