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宋雪涛:“抢出口”带动PMI重回扩张
雪涛宏观笔记·2025-03-03 07:37

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of the economy is maintained by the "export grabbing" strategy, with the sustainability of economic recovery dependent on future export conditions and policy responses [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for February is at 50.2, indicating a return above the growth line, with a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points, surpassing the average increase of 0.8 percentage points from 2015 to 2019 [1]. - The production index rose by 2.7 percentage points to 52.5%, while the new orders index increased by 1.9 percentage points to 51.1% [1]. - The export new orders index in February increased by 2.2 percentage points to 48.6%, driven by the "export grabbing" trend [2]. Group 2: Export Dynamics - The "export grabbing" mode has been accelerated since Trump's election, with a 10.1% year-on-year increase in U.S. imports from China in December 2024 and a 15.6% increase in Chinese exports to the U.S. [2]. - In January 2025, U.S. container imports reached a record 2.487 million TEU, with a month-on-month increase of 10.6% from China [2]. - The manufacturing sector's performance is bolstered by the "export grabbing," with the equipment manufacturing production index remaining above 54% in February [2]. Group 3: Price Trends - In February, the main raw material purchase prices and factory gate prices indices increased by 1.3 and 1.1 percentage points, respectively, providing positive guidance for the PPI data [3]. Group 4: Trade Tensions and Policy Outlook - The intensification of U.S.-China trade tensions since February raises concerns about the sustainability of the "export grabbing" window, with new tariffs announced by the U.S. [4]. - The manufacturing PMI's production and raw material inventory indices declined by 0.8 and 0.7 percentage points, indicating uncertainty in export performance [4]. - Current domestic policies are focused on stabilizing the economy, with monetary policy emphasizing coordination rather than aggressive measures, and fiscal policy prioritizing debt management [5][6].