特朗普关税给美国经济带来阴影

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the negative impact of Trump's tariff policies on the U.S. economy, highlighting rising costs for manufacturers and deteriorating consumer confidence due to increased prices and potential inflation [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reported by S&P Global reached its highest level in over two years, indicating increased costs for raw materials in manufacturing [2]. - The average price of steel used for automotive and construction purposes in the U.S. rose by 13% compared to the end of 2024, reaching $775 per ton [2]. - The consumer confidence index dropped to 98.3 in February, marking a decline of 7.0 points from the previous month and the lowest level in eight months [4]. Group 2: Corporate Responses - Companies heavily reliant on imports from China, such as Steve Madden, are planning to selectively raise prices starting in the fall, reducing their import reliance from 70% to 40% by November [3]. - Lear Corporation's CFO indicated that the company would increase inventory in the short term to mitigate tariff risks [2]. - The U.S. government’s efficiency department's review and potential layoffs are raising concerns about job losses, with estimates suggesting a loss of 52,000 jobs due to the impact of reduced overseas aid [3][4]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Economists are cautious about the rising unemployment insurance claims, which reached 242,000, exceeding market expectations and indicating potential job market weaknesses [4]. - The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model predicts a growth rate of 2.3% for Q1 2025, suggesting strong economic performance, although consumer sentiment is declining [4].