硬AI·2025-03-03 14:37Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley indicates that the reduction in CoWoS orders from clients like Nvidia, Marvell, and Amazon for 2025 is not due to demand issues but rather a correction of previously overly optimistic expectations [2][3]. Group 1: Order Adjustments - Clients have lowered their 2025 CoWoS order expectations by approximately 8-10%, with Nvidia's capacity forecast reduced by about 40,000 to 45,000 wafers [3][4]. - The adjustments are attributed to clients' initial forecasts exceeding TSMC's supply capabilities, leading to a need for more accurate predictions as delivery timelines approach [3][4]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - Changes in product offerings and order priorities may have influenced supply chain expectations, with Nvidia altering several product timelines and TSMC prioritizing CoWoS-L orders over CoWoS-S [4]. - Morgan Stanley's more conservative forecast for TSMC's 2025 monthly capacity is 75,000 wafers, totaling 725,000 wafers for the year, which is lower than previous aggressive estimates [4]. Group 3: Demand Outlook - Despite order reductions, overall demand remains strong, particularly for Nvidia's B200/B300 series and Amazon's Trainium 2 projects, indicating a positive trend in the AI chip market [5][6]. - Even with TSMC's capacity expansion, the CoWoS supply will still be tight in 2025, with strong front-end wafer orders and continued demand for critical components like HBM [6]. Group 4: Future Projections - Nvidia's demand for CoWoS-L wafers is projected to reach 390,000 wafers in 2025, sufficient for producing around 6 million Blackwell chips and nearly 1 million Hopper GPUs [7]. - Amazon's Trainium 2 is expected to be a significant growth driver for AI ASICs in 2025, with demand anticipated to exceed 1.5 million units [8].