NAND新出路是什么？

Core Viewpoint - NAND manufacturers are often overlooked in the AI boom, as their growth potential in AI applications is limited compared to DRAM, particularly HBM, which is essential for AI computing needs [1][2][3] NAND Market Dynamics - The NAND market has experienced significant fluctuations, with a notable recovery in early 2024 driven by increased demand from the smartphone sector and AI server construction [6][8] - Global smartphone shipments rose by 8.2% year-on-year in Q1 2024, with a shift towards larger capacity models [6] - AI server demand led to a 32% quarter-on-quarter increase in enterprise SSD procurement, with North America's top three cloud service providers accounting for 58% of global orders [6][7] - Strategic production cuts by major manufacturers have resulted in a 17% increase in NAND Flash contract prices in Q1 2024 [6][9] AI Demand and Pricing Trends - AI server SSD demand is projected to exceed 45EB in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of over 60% expected in the coming years [7][9] - The average selling price (ASP) of NAND products has increased by approximately 15% due to AI demand, despite a 1% decline in shipment volume [9][10] - The enterprise SSD contract price has seen an accumulated increase of over 80% from Q4 2023 to Q3 2024 due to heightened AI server demand [7][9] Technological Innovations - SanDisk has introduced a new storage technology called High Bandwidth Flash (HBF), aimed at providing high bandwidth and capacity for AI inference applications [15][19] - HBF technology allows for parallel access to multiple high-capacity 3D NAND arrays, potentially offering a solution to compete with HBM in specific applications [15][19] - The first generation of HBF technology can provide up to 4TB of VRAM capacity, with plans for further enhancements [15][19] Future Outlook - NAND manufacturers are exploring various strategies to adapt to market changes, including enhancing storage density and dynamic capacity adjustments [22][23] - The introduction of HBF could signify a new opportunity for NAND manufacturers to capture a share of the AI market, although competition remains fierce [24][25] - The industry's recovery is evident, but ongoing challenges in the consumer electronics market continue to exert pressure on NAND manufacturers [11][24]