“申”度解盘 | 年后指数首次长阴线，行情中继还是到头了？

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a correction after a period of exuberance, with mid-term opportunities still present in technology stocks, but caution is advised regarding sector rotation [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The market showed significant volatility this week, with fluctuations in various sectors including robotics, cloud computing, data centers, and solid-state batteries. The STAR Market and ChiNext performed well, while the Hang Seng Tech Index saw a notable decline [1] - By the end of the week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell nearly 2%, the STAR Market dropped close to 4%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a decline exceeding 6%. Technology stocks broadly underperformed, particularly in computing and robotics [1] Group 2: Sector Rotation and Guidance - The Hong Kong stock market remains a key indicator, with the recent deepseek event leading to a revaluation of asset prices, particularly benefiting internet platforms. The A/H premium indicates that the index is at a relative low point, suggesting that monitoring Hong Kong's performance is crucial [2] - The deepseek effect on technology stocks is expected to have long-term implications, with confidence in China's technological advancements, especially in artificial intelligence, being a significant factor [2] Group 3: Asset Outlook - The U.S. stock market, particularly the tech-heavy Nasdaq, is facing a downturn due to overvaluation and concerns over economic recession, while Chinese assets are expected to recover in the global asset allocation landscape [3] - Several foreign brokerage firms have upgraded their ratings on Chinese assets, indicating potential for growth in the long term [3] Group 4: Index and Position Management - The STAR Market index has shown a long bearish candle but is expected to have limited adjustment, with strong support anticipated at previous highs. The Hang Seng Tech Index is also expected to maintain its upward trend [4] - It is recommended to shift focus from previously high-performing sectors like robotics and software to more fundamentally sound sectors such as solid-state batteries and non-ferrous metals, while managing positions carefully [4]