金属周报 | 衰退担忧重燃，金铜承压

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced significant fluctuations last week, with COMEX copper prices being influenced by tariff discussions and weak economic data from the U.S., leading to a bearish sentiment in both gold and copper markets [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - COMEX gold fell by 2.79% and silver by 4.39% last week, while COMEX copper and SHFE copper saw declines of 0.6% and 0.43% respectively [2]. - The overall market was chaotic, with copper prices initially rebounding but later retreating due to weak economic indicators from the U.S. [3][5]. Group 2: Tariff Investigation and Economic Outlook - The initiation of a tariff investigation on copper by the Trump administration sparked market interest, but subsequent weak economic data led to a strong expectation of economic slowdown, putting pressure on copper prices [3][4]. - U.S. recession fears resurfaced as economic data, including real estate and consumer confidence, showed unexpected weakness, contributing to a decline in gold prices [4][14]. Group 3: Copper Market Analysis - COMEX copper prices exhibited wide fluctuations, with a contango structure in the price curve, indicating a potential for inventory accumulation in the future [5][6]. - The copper concentrate market is experiencing high demand, but supply remains stable, with a notable seasonal decline in port inventories [8][10]. Group 4: Precious Metals Market Review - Gold and silver prices faced downward pressure, with COMEX gold trading between $2844 and $2974 per ounce, and silver between $31.3 and $33.5 per ounce [14]. - The gold-silver ratio increased, indicating a stronger performance of gold relative to silver, while gold prices showed a stronger decline compared to oil prices [16][20]. Group 5: Inventory and Positioning - COMEX gold inventory increased to 39.26 million ounces, while silver inventory rose to approximately 40.86 million ounces [23]. - Non-commercial long positions in COMEX gold decreased, with the long position ratio dropping to around 61.9%, indicating a shift in market sentiment [26].