Workflow
【广发宏观贺骁束】高频数据下的2月经济
郭磊宏观茶座·2025-03-03 10:43

Group 1 - The Spring Festival this year showed characteristics of a significant return home, with passenger turnover volume in January 2025 increasing by 17.6% year-on-year [1][8] - The congestion index in 39 cities recorded 1.80 as of February 28, indicating a 102.0% increase compared to the average of the last two weeks before the festival [9] - The subway passenger volume in the last week of February was 97.1% of the average from the two weeks prior to the festival [9] Group 2 - The industrial sector's operating rates showed mixed results year-on-year, with significant increases in steel and automotive sectors [2][10] - As of February 27-28, the operating rate of high furnaces increased by 2.7 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2][10] - The operating rate for styrene increased by 18.1 percentage points year-on-year, while PVC and PTA saw declines of 2.2 and 3.9 percentage points respectively [2][11] Group 3 - Construction site resumption rates and labor utilization rates remain below last year's levels, but funding availability has improved year-on-year [3][12] - As of February 27, the resumption rate for 13,532 construction sites was 64.6%, and the labor utilization rate was 61.7% [3][12] - The cement dispatch rate recorded a year-on-year increase of 0.6 percentage points, indicating a recovery in physical workload [3][12] Group 4 - The new visa-free policy has led to a significant increase in international flight operations, with a 24.6% year-on-year increase in average daily international flights in February [4][14] - Inbound tourism generated substantial consumption, with 13.19 million inbound tourists in 2024, a 60.8% increase from 2023, and total consumption reaching $94.2 billion, up 77.8% [4][14] Group 5 - The film box office and audience numbers have significantly rebounded, with a 63.3% increase in average daily box office revenue and a 57.9% increase in average daily audience numbers in January-February [5][15] - The box office for the Spring Festival reached a record high of 9.507 billion yuan, a 16.6% increase year-on-year [5][15] Group 6 - The real estate market showed signs of recovery, with a 35.6% year-on-year increase in average daily transaction area in 30 major cities in February [6][16] - The average daily transaction area reached 37.1 million square meters in the last week of February, close to the average of November last year [6][16] Group 7 - Automotive sales showed a mixed performance, with a 4% year-on-year decline in retail sales as of February 23, but a significant 77% increase in new energy vehicle sales [7][17] - The wholesale volume of passenger vehicles increased by 60% year-on-year in February [7][17] Group 8 - Home appliance sales maintained relatively high growth rates, with online sales of air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators showing significant year-on-year increases [8][18] - The offline sales of these appliances also demonstrated strong growth, indicating sustained demand supported by favorable policies [8][18] Group 9 - Container throughput continued to rise, with a 19.8% year-on-year increase in February, reflecting stable export conditions [9][19] - The overall cargo throughput at domestic ports also showed a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [9][19] Group 10 - The industrial price index has shown fluctuations but remains near the high point since October, with a 1.9% increase from the end of January [10][20] - The prices of energy and building materials have slightly decreased, while prices for non-ferrous metals and chemicals have increased [10][20]