热点思考 | 解码地方“财政账” ——“大国财政”系列之二

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the changes in local fiscal reports, highlighting the income structure and expenditure situation for 2024 and the budget expectations for 2025, providing insights into potential fiscal "bottlenecks" and revenue expectations for local governments [1][24]. Group 1: 2024 Local General Fiscal Situation - In 2024, local general fiscal revenue growth reached 1.7%, higher than the national average of 1.3%, primarily due to increased efforts in asset disposal and resource mobilization [2][8]. - Local general fiscal expenditure growth was 3.2%, lower than the national rate of 3.6%, attributed to sufficient central carryover funds supporting national fiscal spending [2][8]. - Local non-tax revenue saw a significant increase of approximately 12.5%, while tax revenue experienced an average decline of about 2% [2][9]. Group 2: 2024 Local Government Fund Performance - Local government fund revenue decreased by 13.5% in 2024, with a slight expenditure growth of 0.4% [3][12]. - The decline in land transfer income, which fell by 16%, significantly impacted government fund revenues, with 19 out of 25 provinces reporting decreases [13][12]. - Some regions compensated for the decline in land transfer income through project construction and investment revenues, with notable increases in specific funds in provinces like Guizhou [14][12]. Group 3: 2025 Local Fiscal Budget Goals - Local governments have raised their 2025 general fiscal revenue growth target to 3%, up from 1.7% in 2024, mainly due to expected tax recovery [5][18]. - Tax revenue is projected to grow by an average of 3.9%, while non-tax revenue is expected to decline by 11.6% [5][18]. - Local government fund revenue is anticipated to increase by 1.6%, while expenditure is expected to decrease by 6.5% [5][20].