银行｜如何理解上市银行同业存单额度变化？

Market Overview - The banking sector exhibited stable performance last week, with lower volatility compared to other industries, indicating a relatively stable trend amidst rapid structural market changes [1] - The market is focused on potential unexpected policies from the Two Sessions, particularly regarding special government bonds for bank capital injection, interest rates, and reserve requirements [1] - Overall, policies since Q4 are expected to have a direct impact on stabilizing financial risks, with limited likelihood of significant policy surprises during the Two Sessions [1] Interbank Certificates of Deposit (CDs) - As of March 1, 2025, 39 A-share listed banks have disclosed their interbank CD issuance plans for 2025 [2] - The total issuance plan for these banks reached 22.38 trillion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 23.2%, with 22 banks increasing their issuance quotas [3] - Large banks showed a substantial increase in issuance quotas, while smaller banks remained relatively stable, with state-owned banks' quotas rising by 44.8% [3] Banking Sector Dynamics - The banking sector is experiencing a divergence in core asset and liability growth, driven by increased demand for active liabilities [4] - Non-bank deposits have significantly decreased due to regulatory impacts, with a total decline of 4.7 trillion yuan from December 2024 to January 2025 [4] - Loan and bond asset investments have been robust, with a notable increase in loans and bond investments in January 2025, reflecting a strong demand for credit [5] Market Performance - The banking sector outperformed the broader market last week, with the CITIC Bank Index only slightly declining by 0.35% compared to a 1.72% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [6] - The market is witnessing a stabilization in style, with a shift in focus towards bank stocks due to their defensive value amidst policy expectations [6] - The A/H premium for listed banks decreased by 0.53 percentage points to 33.51%, indicating a continued preference for H-shares over A-shares [6] Investment Outlook - The banking sector is expected to maintain a stable upward trend, supported by stable fundamentals and policy clarity [8] - Recommended investment strategies include selecting stocks with stable performance and dividend contributions, as well as those with high return on equity (ROE) and low valuation premiums [8]