躁动！深圳房价，抬头了！

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen's real estate market has shown a significant recovery since the fourth quarter of last year, driven by government stimulus measures and a rebound in buyer confidence, leading to increased transaction volumes and prices in both new and second-hand housing markets [2][11][22]. Group 1: New Housing Market - In October 2023, Shenzhen's new housing transactions surged to 4,153 units, up from around 2,000 units previously, with November seeing 8,076 units and December maintaining a high of 6,769 units [2]. - The total new housing transaction volume for the year exceeded that of 2023, indicating a strong recovery trend [2]. - The second-hand housing market also experienced a notable rebound, with transaction volumes increasing from 3,191 units in September to 8,282 units in December [2][3]. Group 2: Price Trends - After hitting a low of 6 million yuan per unit in July 2023, Shenzhen's second-hand housing prices rebounded, reaching 6.3 million yuan in October and further increasing to 6.41 million yuan by February 2025 [3][8]. - Despite the increase in transaction volumes, the average transaction price showed slight fluctuations, with a minor decline noted in November and December 2023 [7][8]. Group 3: Economic and Policy Context - The recovery in Shenzhen's real estate market is attributed to strong purchasing power, a supply-demand imbalance, and improved market confidence driven by macroeconomic policies [11][12]. - The central government's shift towards more aggressive monetary and fiscal policies aims to stabilize the economy and support the real estate sector, with expectations of significant reductions in interest rates and increased government spending [11][15]. - Shenzhen's economic performance remains robust, with a GDP growth rate of 5.8% in 2023, outperforming other major cities, and a total GDP nearing 3.7 trillion yuan [13][14]. Group 4: Population Dynamics - Shenzhen's population increased by 199,400 in 2024, reaching a total of 17.99 million, marking the highest growth among major cities [20][21]. - This population growth is expected to further support housing demand and contribute to the overall recovery of the real estate market [20]. Group 5: Future Outlook - While the current recovery is promising, the long-term stability of Shenzhen's real estate market hinges on broader economic recovery and employment improvements across the country [22][25]. - The market is still in an adjustment phase, and the true impact of recent policy changes and economic conditions will become clearer in the second and third quarters of 2024 [25][26].