达利欧喊话特朗普：若不这样做，债务危机必爆发！

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the urgent need for the Trump administration to commit to reducing the fiscal deficit to avoid a severe debt crisis in the United States within the next three years [1][4][2]. Group 1: Debt Crisis Warning - Ray Dalio warns that without immediate action, the U.S. will face a debt crisis similar to a heart attack, with the crisis potentially occurring in about three years, possibly earlier or later by a year [2]. - The annual fiscal deficit has surged to $1.8 trillion, and Dalio urges the government to reduce the deficit to below 3% of GDP to mitigate financial risks [4][5]. - Concerns are raised about the U.S. needing to issue new debt to pay off old debt, with a potential shortage of buyers for these bonds, as major buyers like foreign central banks and domestic banks have withdrawn from the market [5][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Debt Management - Dalio highlights the imbalance in the market, where the need to find buyers for new debt is becoming increasingly challenging due to rising sanctions and oversupply of bonds [6]. - He draws parallels to historical events, suggesting that the U.S. government may take measures against countries holding large amounts of U.S. debt, potentially leading to debt restructuring without calling it a default [8][9]. Group 3: Currency and Investment Outlook - Dalio expresses skepticism about the potential "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," suggesting that any U.S. measures would not lead to a devaluation of the dollar alone but rather a global currency decline [11]. - He discusses the modern monetary system's reliance on credit creation, warning that excessive debt could lead to rapid currency devaluation and financial crises [12]. - Dalio advocates for investment in gold and Bitcoin as potential stable alternatives to debt-based currencies, suggesting a cautious allocation of 10% to 15% in gold within a diversified investment portfolio [13].