中金 • 全球研究 | 日元会一路升值吗？

Core Viewpoint - The appreciation of the Japanese yen since early 2025 is primarily driven by speculative trading from foreign investors based on the narrowing interest rate differential between the US and Japan, rather than reflecting genuine demand from Japan [2][11]. Group 1: Reasons Behind Yen Appreciation - The main factors for the yen's appreciation include rising inflation in Japan, expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BOJ), increasing Japanese bond yields, and a narrowing of the US-Japan interest rate differential [3][21]. - As of January 2025, Japan's CPI rose by 4.0% year-on-year, the highest among major developed economies, driven by both cost-push and demand-pull factors [17][21]. - The yen's appreciation has been largely influenced by trading activity during non-Japanese trading hours, indicating that foreign investors are the primary drivers of this trend [11][12]. Group 2: Real Demand vs. Speculative Flows - Despite the yen's appreciation, real demand indicators show a continuous net outflow of funds from Japan, suggesting that a strong yen may not be sustainable in the long term [4][34]. - Japan has been running a trade deficit, with January 2025's trade balance showing a deficit of approximately 2.7 trillion yen, influenced by high energy prices and structural shifts in Japanese companies moving operations overseas [25][26]. - The service trade balance has remained roughly neutral, with an increase in inbound tourism offsetting structural deficits in digital services [27]. Group 3: Future Yen Exchange Rate Outlook - In the short term, the yen may appreciate due to trading factors, but long-term significant appreciation is unlikely due to ongoing structural outflows of funds from Japan [5][34]. - Historical patterns indicate that substantial yen appreciation typically requires economic weakness in the US or global risks, which are not currently present [35]. - The BOJ's interest rate hikes are already priced in, and the potential for further significant increases is limited, which may hinder the yen's long-term strength [35][36]. Group 4: Impact of Carry Trade - As of February 2025, net short positions in the yen remain, but they are not at extreme levels, suggesting that a rapid reversal leading to significant yen appreciation is unlikely [6][39]. - The potential for large-scale reversals in carry trades that could disrupt global financial markets is also considered a low-probability event [39].