布朗永久组合过去10年，一无是处吗？

Core Viewpoint - The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio has shown stable performance since 2008, outperforming the S&P 500 during the financial crisis but lagging in the subsequent bull market driven by major tech stocks [5][10]. Performance Comparison - The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio achieved a total return of 4.18% year-to-date and 16.02% over the past year, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust had returns of -1.06% and 18.45% respectively [7]. - Over the past ten years, the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio's annualized return was 6.53%, compared to the S&P 500's 14.40% [9]. Asset Allocation and Strategy - The portfolio consists of four ETFs, each weighted equally at 25%, and is rebalanced annually [4][13]. - The components include Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, SPDR Blmbg 1-3 Mth T-Bill ETF, and SPDR Gold Shares [13]. Risk and Volatility - The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio has a lower annualized standard deviation of 7.51% compared to the S&P 500's 15.51%, indicating less volatility [9]. - The maximum drawdown for the Harry Browne Portfolio was 15.92%, while the S&P 500 experienced a maximum drawdown of 23.93% [9]. Historical Context - The portfolio's performance was particularly strong during the 2008-2013 period, with a maximum drawdown of just over 10% compared to nearly 50% for the S&P 500 [14]. - Since 2020, the performance gap widened, primarily due to the decline in U.S. Treasury bonds and the underperformance of gold relative to the S&P 500 [11][10]. Future Considerations - The portfolio's design prioritizes stability over high returns, which may be beneficial if the U.S. stock market experiences a downturn [14]. - Current yields indicate that U.S. Treasury bonds and cash positions may contribute positively to the portfolio's performance in a future market correction [15].