“关税劫”下，越南能撑起“小单快反”的出海梦吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant impact of recent tariff increases on various industries, particularly the fashion and apparel sector, emphasizing that the consequences of these tariffs may outweigh the political drama surrounding them [1]. Group 1: Tariff Impacts - On February 1, Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada, eliminating the $800 tax exemption for low-value goods, which significantly affects daily consumer goods like clothing and toys [1]. - As of March 4, an additional 10% tariff on imports from major Asian countries was announced, bringing the total tariff to 20%, severely undermining the cost advantages previously enjoyed by businesses [1]. - For the fashion industry, the cumulative tax burden has increased from 0% to 42% for certain products, threatening the viability of fast-fashion platforms that rely on competitive pricing [1]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The domestic apparel industry has historically benefited from cross-border e-commerce, allowing factories to sell excess capacity overseas, but this advantage is diminishing due to increased competition and shrinking profit margins [3]. - By the second half of 2022, the average monthly production of popular items dropped significantly, from 500,000 units to below 300,000 units, indicating a decline in business performance [3]. - Fast-fashion platforms are experiencing a revenue increase of less than 20% in 2024, while profits have plummeted by 40%, leading to increased penalties for factories due to rising return rates [3]. Group 3: Supply Chain Shifts - The article discusses the potential shift of supply chains to Vietnam as a response to tariff pressures, with platforms attempting to redirect orders to manufacturers in Vietnam, which currently faces no additional tariffs [6]. - However, the article argues that this strategy may be shortsighted, as future tariff policies could expand to include Vietnam, and the existing supply chain infrastructure in regions like Guangdong is not easily replicable [6]. - Domestic initiatives, such as the development plans in Qingyuan, are aimed at upgrading the textile and apparel industry, offering incentives for businesses to remain and grow within China rather than relocating [6][7]. Group 4: Long-term Strategy - The article suggests that businesses should focus on leveraging China's established supply chain advantages rather than blindly following platforms to Vietnam, as this could jeopardize their long-term competitiveness [7].