海外研究｜2月美国PMI回落，年初景气表现未能延续

Core Viewpoint - The global manufacturing PMI index for February 2025 shows a slight recovery to 50.6, indicating a phase of resilience in the global economy, but it remains fragile, characterized by "China's stability, emerging markets warming, Europe bottoming out, the US declining, and Canada and Mexico contracting" [1][2]. Regional Analysis - Asia: Economic performance remains mixed, with China's manufacturing PMI rising to 50.2 due to accelerated resumption of work and production. Japan and South Korea's PMIs are near the threshold, at 49.0 and 49.9 respectively, while Southeast Asia shows marginal improvement [3]. - Europe: Most countries show marginal improvements in manufacturing PMI but remain in contraction territory. Germany's PMI is at 46.5, slightly above previous values, indicating a need for cautious optimism as the Eurozone's GDP growth remains around zero [3]. - Americas: Canada and Mexico's manufacturing PMIs have declined, with Canada's PMI dropping significantly from 51.6 to 47.8, indicating a return to contraction [3]. US Manufacturing Insights - The US manufacturing PMI for February is recorded at 50.3, down from 50.9, failing to maintain the earlier signs of resilience. Key indicators show a decline in supply and demand, rising inflation, and a cooling labor market [4]. - The inventory cycle is still in a bottoming phase, and trade issues may continue to impact US foreign trade performance in the second quarter. The expectation is for the US manufacturing PMI to fluctuate around 50 in the first half of the year [4]. Export Trends - South Korea's export growth improved from -10.2% to 1%, influenced by "export rush" and temporary recovery in US manufacturing demand. China's export growth increased by 4.0 percentage points to 10.7% in December 2024 [5]. - Geopolitical factors and the pace of overseas tariff increases will be crucial variables affecting China's export growth in 2025, with potential short-term benefits from "export rush" before tariffs take effect [5].