特朗普行情回到大选前，关税负面影响显现

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the unexpected volatility in the U.S. stock market following the implementation of new tariff policies by the Trump administration, leading to a reassessment of market expectations [1][2][4] - The S&P 500 index has fallen below its closing price on November 5, 2024, the day of the U.S. presidential election, indicating a significant market shift [2][4] - Initial optimism regarding Trump's policies has turned into uncertainty, as evidenced by the decline in stock prices and the reassessment of investment strategies [2][3] Group 2 - Many market participants had anticipated that 2025 would continue to see the U.S. as a dominant economic force, attracting global investment due to its stronger economy compared to Europe and China [3] - There were high expectations for the extension and permanence of personal income tax cuts and deregulation to boost corporate activity, with the belief that tariffs would be used more as negotiation tools [3][4] - However, the negative impacts of the new government's policies have begun to surface, with tariffs imposed on Canada, Mexico, and China, leading to retaliatory measures and increased economic pessimism among businesses and consumers [4][5] Group 3 - The market's concerns are reflected in the volatility of major asset prices, with a shift in investment from U.S. stocks to European stocks, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank [4] - The anticipated strengthening of the dollar is also diminishing, as the index measuring the dollar's strength against major currencies has fallen to its lowest point since the presidential election [4][5] - There is a growing awareness of risk, with some funds flowing into gold as a safe haven, while Bitcoin, despite a 20% increase, lacks previous momentum [4]