钴价大涨，部分正极企业暂缓报价

Core Viewpoint - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the world's largest cobalt producer, has announced a four-month suspension of cobalt product exports to address the oversupply and declining prices in the international market [2]. Group 1: Market Impact - The DRC's decision is expected to reduce global cobalt supply by nearly 50,000 tons, which is approximately 24% of the annual global supply [2]. - Following the announcement, cobalt prices have surged significantly, with electrolytic cobalt and cobalt sulfate experiencing notable increases, and cobalt sulfate prices rising over 30% in just seven days [2]. - The upstream smelting plants have low inventory levels, sufficient for only about one month of production, leading to increased reluctance to sell and higher price quotes from manufacturers [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Response - Companies like Huayou Cobalt are taking measures to address the supply tightness, with their Indonesian project set to produce 50,000 tons of high-nickel battery precursor materials, aiming to fill the supply gap [3]. - Zhongwei Co. is also preparing by investing in Tengyuan Cobalt and enhancing self-supply ratios to mitigate supply chain risks [3]. - Despite current inventory levels at smelting plants, the long shipping cycle from the DRC to China (70-80 days) raises concerns about the actual impact of the DRC's policy on supply by July 2025 [3]. Group 3: Long-term Trends - The demand side still faces pressure, with high domestic inventory levels and uncertain demand expectations from the power battery and digital consumer markets [3]. - The industry is accelerating the low-cobalt strategy to reduce reliance on cobalt resources, with high-nickel ternary materials reducing cobalt consumption by 30% per ton [3]. - Integrated battery manufacturers are adopting strategies such as sourcing Indonesian nickel-cobalt resources and locking in prices through long-term contracts to hedge against rising cobalt costs [3].