复盘近十年两会期间、会后A股表现

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the Chinese stock market during and after the National People's Congress (NPC) sessions, highlighting historical trends and sector performances, indicating a generally positive outlook for the market during this period [1][15]. Market Performance Before NPC - Over the past decade, A-share indices have shown mixed results in the week leading up to the NPC, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 6 times and falling 4 times, resulting in a 60% probability of an increase [2]. - Among 31 sectors, 9 sectors had positive average returns in the week before the NPC, with the pharmaceutical sector leading at 0.78% [3]. Market Performance During NPC - In 2024, the power equipment sector led with a 6.81% increase during the NPC, followed by non-ferrous metals at 5.82% [5][6]. - Historical data shows that sectors like pharmaceuticals, social services, and beauty care have performed well during NPC sessions [5]. Market Performance After NPC - A-shares typically perform strongly in the month following the NPC, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 500 both rising 7 times and falling 3 times, indicating a 70% probability of an increase [8]. - Average returns for major indices in the month after the NPC are positive, with the Shanghai Composite Index averaging a 2.81% increase [9]. - In 2024, the non-ferrous metals sector led with a 13.1% increase in the month following the NPC, while the comprehensive sector followed with a 4.67% increase [10][13]. Sector Analysis - Over the past decade, all 31 sectors have shown positive average returns in the month following the NPC, with the construction decoration sector leading at 6.44% [8]. - In 2023, the media sector had the highest increase at 28.57%, followed by computer and electronic sectors [10][13]. Market Outlook - Historical data suggests that the capital market tends to perform positively around the NPC, with average returns of 2.8% before and 4.6% after the NPC for the A-share market [15]. - Analysts expect the NPC to provide confidence to the market, potentially leading to structural valuation adjustments in A-shares [15]. - The focus for investment should be on technology innovation themes and sectors benefiting from domestic demand expansion [15][16].