【宏观策略】如何看待“两会行情”的风格切换——2025年3月资产配置报告

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current macroeconomic environment in the U.S. and its implications for the A-share market, particularly focusing on the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and the potential for a second wave of growth in technology stocks following the "Two Sessions" meeting [2][3]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The U.S. labor market remains stable, with January's non-farm payrolls increasing by 143,000, which was below expectations, primarily due to weather impacts. The unemployment rate remains low, and hourly wages have shown a year-on-year increase, indicating a solid labor market [2]. - Inflation continues to rebound, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) showing a year-on-year increase, influenced by the Trump administration's substantial tariff increases on imports from Canada and Mexico, which may lead to rising used car prices and complicate inflation management [2]. - The uncertainty surrounding future tariff policies is expected to remain high, with the Trump administration likely to continue a pattern of "high-frequency testing and dynamic adjustment" in its tariff strategy [2]. A-share Market Strategy and Insights - Following the "Two Sessions," technology stocks are anticipated to experience a second wave of growth, driven by policy support and market sentiment. However, the domestic economic fundamentals indicate that the recovery impulse from policy measures is weakening, and internal growth momentum faces downward pressure [3]. - The A-share market has seen a recent increase in trading volume, indicating a positive sentiment phase. However, the market is expected to refocus on technology stocks post-"Two Sessions," with a potential adjustment in the technology sector anticipated in early March [3]. - The article suggests that while the technology sector remains a key focus, investors should consider taking profits at high points due to the increased volatility and potential for a peak in the sector's performance [3]. Configuration Strategy - The technology sector is highlighted as the main focus for A-shares, with recommendations for moderate profit-taking as the market may experience adjustments in early March. The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring global opportunities, including overseas bonds and gold [3].