实施更加积极的财政政策：申万期货早间评论-20250306

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy by the government, with a GDP growth target of around 5% and a budget deficit rate planned at approximately 4% [1][5] - The government plans to issue special bonds totaling 1.3 trillion yuan and arrange local government special bonds of 4.4 trillion yuan to support economic growth [1][5] - The article highlights the U.S. President's announcement of tariffs and the potential impact on the markets, including rising U.S. stock prices and falling oil and bond prices [1][4] Group 2 - In the oil market, a decline of 1.8% was noted, with OPEC+ planning to increase oil production for the first time since 2022, which may affect oil demand outlook due to U.S. tariffs [2][9] - Copper prices showed a slight increase, supported by stable domestic demand driven by power investment and household appliance production, although real estate data remains weak [2][18] - The shipping index for the European route experienced a drop of 4.73%, with limited support for shipping rates due to seasonal demand and excess supply [3][37] Group 3 - The article discusses the U.S. President's focus on tax cuts and budget balancing, along with the intention to repeal the Chip Act, which may influence market sentiment [4][5] - The Chinese government aims to create over 12 million new urban jobs and maintain a consumer price index (CPI) increase of around 2% [5] - The article notes that the overall market sentiment is cautious due to the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on various sectors, including commodities and equities [7][17]