纺织服装｜当下纺服板块投资的六条主线

Core Viewpoint - The textile and apparel sector is expected to see a recovery opportunity by 2025, driven by a clearer consumption environment and policy expectations, with key investment themes identified for potential growth [1][10]. Group 1: Retail New Business Models - Since Q2 2023, brands have faced ongoing sales pressure and channel challenges, prompting them to actively seek changes and explore new retail business models, particularly the new urban outlet model, which is viewed positively for its long-term potential [2]. Group 2: Strong Brand Momentum - The differentiation in consumer demand has created high growth opportunities in certain segments, with some brands capitalizing on this by enhancing marketing and channel strategies, leading to the emergence of popular products and steady brand momentum that is expected to drive rapid performance growth [3]. Group 3: Consumption Recovery - As the consumption environment and policy expectations become clearer, it is anticipated that sales for various brands will stabilize and recover by 2025, with the operational pressures from the negative retail-inventory-discount cycle expected to be alleviated [4]. Group 4: Textile and Apparel OEM Leaders & High Dividend Yields - Despite external disturbances such as tariffs and trade frictions putting pressure on stock prices, leading OEMs in the textile and apparel sector are expected to maintain their core advantages and achieve long-term market share growth due to diversified production capacity and new product development capabilities, alongside stable dividend policies that offer attractive yields [5]. Group 5: Outdoor OEM Industry Turning Point - The outdoor OEM industry, which reached a peak during the pandemic due to surging overseas demand and order returns to China, has entered a down cycle since the second half of 2022. However, as downstream inventory depletion approaches its end, a demand turning point is anticipated by 2025, leading to high certainty in order and performance recovery [6]. Group 6: Specialty New Materials - Rapid technological advancements in downstream applications, along with rising demand for sustainability and environmental considerations, are expected to drive the need for specialty new materials such as renewable nylon and ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene, benefiting companies in the textile and apparel sector during the initial phase of industry penetration [8].