地缘政治｜外部扰动不改信心修复

Core Viewpoint - The external geopolitical environment in early March is characterized by increased disturbances, but this does not alter the recovery of market confidence. Despite recent external disruptions, market participants are expected to tolerate these disturbances as risk appetite gradually improves. The focus of Trump's policies remains on domestic issues and non-China countries rather than on the US-China rivalry, suggesting that external disturbances will not significantly impact the recovery of market confidence [1][2][4]. Geopolitical Environment Analysis - The frequency of external disturbances from Trump has increased, including the signing of the "America First Investment Policy" memorandum and a 10% increase in tariffs on China. However, the market's tolerance for these disturbances is expected to rise as risk appetite improves. The upcoming conclusions from the "America First Trade Policy" memorandum on April 1 will be crucial for understanding the future of US-China economic relations [2][3][4]. Key External Events - Six important external events are highlighted: Trump's congressional speech, the "America First Investment Policy" memorandum, new tariffs on China, the national "Two Sessions" policy deployment, negotiations surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and European elections. Trump's speech focused on economic, immigration, tariffs, and foreign policy, but provided limited new information [4][5][6]. Trade Policy Insights - The "America First Investment Policy" memorandum is not legally binding and primarily expresses a stance rather than indicating substantial changes in US-China investment policies. It aims to strengthen scrutiny of US investments in China, but its priority is considered limited due to ongoing debates within US policy circles [5][6]. Tariff Implications - The new tariffs on China are framed under the guise of border security, reflecting domestic issues rather than a broader economic confrontation. The cumulative impact of the 20% tariffs imposed on China is estimated to reduce China's quarterly exports and GDP by 3.3 and 0.36 percentage points, respectively, but the overall impact is deemed manageable [5][6]. Domestic Policy Response - The national "Two Sessions" have prepared for external pressures, emphasizing proactive macroeconomic policies. The government aims to implement a combination of fiscal and monetary policies to effectively respond to external challenges, while also promoting high-quality initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative [6][7]. European Political Landscape - The recent German federal election results indicate a shift towards a center-right government, which may influence European economic and asset dynamics positively. The political and diplomatic factors affecting the Eurozone are expected to stabilize in the short term [7].