市场瓜分殆尽！中国光伏“横扫”日本，价格战即将爆发？| 能见派

Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for Chinese photovoltaic companies entering the Japanese market, which is currently one of the most profitable international markets for solar energy [1][6]. Market Overview - The recent Smart Energy Week in Japan saw over 400 Chinese companies participating, many of which were new entrants, indicating a strong interest in the Japanese market [3]. - The Japanese photovoltaic market is relatively small, with an annual installation capacity of approximately 5GW, which has largely been dominated by Chinese companies [3][4]. Competitive Landscape - The competition in the Japanese photovoltaic market is expected to intensify by 2025, as the market is already saturated with Chinese brands, particularly in the components sector [3][4]. - Major Chinese companies have established a stable supply chain in Japan, with a significant market share in various segments, although inverter market share remains lower for Chinese firms [3][4]. Policy Impact - New regulations in Japan, effective from April 2025, will require solar panels to be installed in new residential buildings, which is expected to boost the installation capacity for residential solar systems [4]. - The Japanese government plans to triple the feed-in tariff (FIT) for commercial rooftop solar installations, which will significantly shorten the investment recovery period for businesses [4]. Pricing Dynamics - The Japanese market is experiencing price competition, but it is noted that quality and aesthetics are highly valued, which may limit aggressive pricing strategies [6][7]. - Chinese companies are maintaining a global pricing strategy, with prices in Japan being comparable to domestic prices, influenced by the overall supply chain dynamics [7]. Market Trends - The Asian market's importance is increasing, with projections indicating that by 2024, the share of solar component exports to Asia will rise to 37.5%, while Europe’s share will decline to 40.7% [8]. - The Japanese market is viewed as a significant opportunity for growth, especially in distributed solar energy systems, contrasting with the shrinking domestic market in China [8].