【招银研究|行业点评】新能源上网电价市场化改革落地：差价结算稳定收益预期，开发运营策略主导竞争

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant step taken by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration in China to promote the market-oriented reform of renewable energy pricing, marking a transition from fixed pricing to market-based pricing for renewable energy generation [1][2]. Background - The transition of renewable energy pricing from fixed rates to market-based rates is a crucial step towards establishing a unified national electricity market in China. The pricing system has evolved from "full guaranteed purchase" to a mixed model of "partial guaranteed purchase and partial market competition," with over 50% of renewable energy participating in market transactions by 2024 [2][4]. - The investment costs for wind and solar energy have significantly decreased, with new installations reaching record highs. The market is now under pressure to develop a market-based consumption system to address the increasing challenges of energy absorption [4][5]. Interpretation - The notification introduces a sustainable pricing settlement mechanism for renewable energy, distinguishing between existing and new projects to stabilize investment expectations. It aims to clarify market trading types and corresponding pricing mechanisms, allowing for more flexible pricing in the spot market and adjustments in medium to long-term trading [8][11]. - Existing projects will continue to follow previous pricing policies, while new projects will need to participate in competitive bidding for their electricity generation, with the pricing determined through annual bidding processes [12][11]. Impact - The market-oriented reform will lead to a new era of detailed management in renewable energy investments, where operational strategies will become the core competitive advantage. Future investment decisions will focus on optimizing cash inflows and outflows throughout the project lifecycle [14][15]. - Short-term demand for new energy storage installations may be affected due to the shift from mandatory to voluntary energy storage configurations, potentially impacting the growth of new installations in the near term. However, the long-term outlook is positive for energy storage and virtual power plants as they adapt to market demands [17]. - The differentiation between old and new policies may create a surge in demand for installations before the policy changes take effect, leading to a "busy season" for renewable energy projects in the short term [18].