Strategy - The recent significant pullback in the Hong Kong stock market was anticipated due to short-term sentiment exhaustion and upcoming important domestic meetings, alongside external disturbances [2] - The market's rebound was primarily driven by trading funds rather than long-term investments, with a notable increase in southbound capital inflows last week [2] - The suggested strategy is to buy actively when prices are low and take profits during euphoric periods, focusing on sectors with strong fundamentals and industry trends [2] Government Work Report - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%, balancing short-term growth stabilization needs with long-term development goals [5] - The CPI inflation target is set at approximately 2%, reflecting a pragmatic approach in a context of weak inflation [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of developing new productive forces, such as AI, while also addressing financial risks and stabilizing the real estate and stock markets [5] US Economic Insights - Recent pressures on the US stock market are attributed to visible risks, including tariff concerns and challenges to the US's AI advantage, leading to a decline in US Treasury yields [8] - The market's concerns about the US economy may be overstated, as past fears have often proved to be excessive [8] - The analysis aims to clarify the underlying truths behind the recent downturn in US macro growth to better assess market directions [8] DeepSeek-R1 Quantitative Strategy - The rapid evolution of large language models like DeepSeek-R1 has garnered significant investor interest, particularly in their application to quantitative strategies [10] - Testing results indicate that DeepSeek-R1 outperformed in industry rotation tasks, achieving an excess return of 22.3% relative to an equal-weighted industry benchmark since 2024 [12] - Despite its advantages, DeepSeek-R1 faces limitations such as hallucinations, content randomness, and context memory length restrictions, which require careful consideration in quantitative strategy development [12] Market Comparison to 2013 - The current market structure shows similarities to 2013, with signs of economic improvement and supportive policies for technology enterprises [14] - The report suggests that the overall market performance in 2025 is expected to surpass that of 2013, with a continued structural trend in technology growth [15] - The analysis indicates that while there may be short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains positive, with less divergence expected compared to 2013 [15]
中金研究 | 本周精选：宏观、策略、量化及ESG