“春节调整”后的出口成色？——1-2月外贸数据点评

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in exports in January-February is primarily attributed to the end of the "export rush" rather than weak external demand, with the Spring Festival misalignment having a lesser impact [2][10][11] Export Data Analysis - January-February exports decreased by 8.4 percentage points compared to December, dropping to 2.3%, partly due to the Spring Festival misalignment, which is estimated to have reduced the growth rate by approximately 1.5 percentage points [2][10][11] - The end of the "export rush" is more pronounced, particularly in exports to the U.S., which fell by 12.5 percentage points to 3.2%, and to emerging markets, indicating a slowdown in the restructuring of overseas supply chains [2][11][12] - Specific categories that experienced significant declines include high-dependence goods like footwear, which saw a drop of 18.0 percentage points to -18.7%, and general machinery, which fell by 30.6 percentage points to -1.6% [3][12][16] Import Data Analysis - Imports in January-February saw a substantial decline of 9.4 percentage points to -8.4%, primarily due to a drop in both processing trade-related electromechanical products and bulk commodities reflecting weak domestic demand [7][18] - Electromechanical product imports rebounded slightly but were still negatively impacted by integrated circuits, which fell by 7.3 percentage points to 2.3% [18] Future Outlook - The Spring Festival misalignment is expected to continue affecting year-on-year growth rates, with a potential rebound in March exports estimated to increase by 6.6 percentage points due to this effect, outweighing the negative impacts from the end of the "export rush" and tariff imposition [4][14] - However, actual exports in March may still face significant pressure when excluding the Spring Festival effect [5][14] Structural Changes in Exports - There is a noticeable divergence in export performance across different categories, with consumer electronics like mobile phones and integrated circuits showing recovery, while textiles and furniture exports have significantly declined [15][16] - Capital goods exports have generally decreased, with notable declines in general machinery and automotive parts, while some intermediate goods like fertilizers have shown a rebound [16]