申万宏观·周度研究成果（3.1-3.7）

Core Insights - The article discusses the current economic challenges and potential recovery paths for Europe in light of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, suggesting that a ceasefire could lead to economic benefits for Europe [10]. Group 1: Local Fiscal Analysis - Local fiscal reports reveal changes in revenue structures and expenditure implementations, analyzing the fiscal "bottlenecks" of 2024 and the revenue and expenditure expectations for 2025 [5]. Group 2: Consumer Trends - The success of the film "Nezha 2" highlights a supply-side effect where improved movie quality creates significant demand, indicating potential future consumer trends [7]. Group 3: Government Work Report Insights - The 2025 government work report sets key economic targets, including a GDP growth rate of around 5%, a CPI increase of about 2%, and an adjusted budget deficit rate of around 4% [9]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of maintaining urban employment levels above 12 million and keeping the urban survey unemployment rate around 5.5% [9]. Group 4: Economic Tracking - The manufacturing PMI for February is reported at 50.2%, indicating stability, while the non-manufacturing PMI is at 50.4%, showing slight growth [11]. - The real estate market shows a significant increase in transaction heat, contrasting with weaker performance in the construction sector [14]. Group 5: Policy Initiatives - The central government's document emphasizes the need for comprehensive rural revitalization, focusing on agricultural productivity, poverty alleviation, and rural infrastructure development [13].