3月锂电产业链排产继续上扬

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is expected to continue its growth trend in March, with production data showing significant increases across various segments [1][2]. Production Data Summary - In March 2025, production of batteries, cathodes, anodes, separators, and electrolytes is projected to rise on a month-on-month basis, with power batteries primarily driven by lithium iron phosphate expected to grow by 15%-18% [3]. - The production growth rate for energy storage batteries is anticipated to increase to 10%-12% due to improving domestic policies and recovering overseas demand [3]. - Major manufacturers are maintaining high operating rates due to strong downstream order demand, with lithium iron phosphate producers seeing a month-on-month production increase of 10%-15% [3]. - Fast-charging demand is driving a 30% surge in high-voltage anode production, while separator manufacturers are expected to ramp up production by 12%-15% [3]. - High-voltage electrolyte demand is projected to boost production by 10% month-on-month [3]. Factors Driving Production Increase - Domestic "two new" policies are being implemented, significantly boosting the new energy vehicle market [4]. - Stricter carbon emission assessments in Europe are likely to accelerate the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, thereby increasing lithium battery demand [4]. - Although the U.S. may experience a slowdown in new energy vehicle growth due to IRA subsidies and tariffs, short-term demand remains supported [4]. - The trade-in policy for old vehicles is enhancing consumer demand for new energy vehicles, further driving the need for power batteries [4]. - The energy storage market is also performing strongly, with global demand for large-scale storage improving and emerging markets like the Middle East actively developing storage projects [4]. - The supply-demand relationship in various segments, including lithium iron phosphate and fast-charging anodes, has shown significant improvement since the beginning of 2025, with prices rebounding from previous lows [4]. - Price negotiations in January and February have led to a potential recovery in unit profitability, suggesting a sustained improvement in the lithium battery industry's overall health [4]. - The advancement of industries such as humanoid robots and eVTOL is increasing the urgency for higher battery energy density and safety, accelerating the commercialization of next-generation technologies like solid-state batteries and silicon anodes [4].