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跨越两千年,黄金还保值吗?
虎嗅APP·2025-03-09 02:42

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical value retention of gold, emphasizing its significance as an investment and its purchasing power over time, particularly in relation to labor and other commodities [2][27]. Group 1: Historical Purchasing Power of Gold - From the Qin Dynasty to the Western Han Dynasty, gold's purchasing power increased significantly, with a 58% appreciation relative to labor income [5][8]. - In the Tang Dynasty, gold's purchasing power remained stable, with one gram of gold equating to approximately 4.2 days of labor income [6][7]. - The Northern Song Dynasty also showed little change in gold's purchasing power, maintaining a similar ratio to labor income [7][8]. Group 2: Gold's Value Relative to Rice - Between the 11th and 18th centuries, the amount of rice that could be purchased with one kilogram of gold fluctuated but generally remained around 30,000 kilograms [12][13]. - The purchasing power of gold did not show a long-term decline during this period, indicating its stability compared to essential commodities like rice [13]. Group 3: Historical Gold-Copper Ratio - In the Qin Dynasty, the gold-to-copper ratio was 1:150, which appreciated to 1:500 during the Western Jin Dynasty, marking a 233% increase [16]. - By the Northern Song Dynasty, the ratio reached 1:900, indicating a 500% appreciation compared to the Qin Dynasty [16]. - In modern times, the gold-to-copper ratio has further increased, with a ratio of 1:8700 in 2025, showing a 57-fold appreciation since the Qin Dynasty [18][19]. Group 4: Modern Purchasing Power of Gold - The establishment of the gold standard in the early 18th century in Britain led to limited inflation, with gold acting as a stabilizing force for prices [22]. - From 1920 to 1971, under the gold standard, gold's purchasing power remained stable, with price increases closely aligned with inflation [23]. - Post-1971, gold prices have significantly outpaced inflation, with gold increasing by 58.5 times compared to a 7.7 times increase in the U.S. CPI [25][26].