全线大跌！“黑天鹅”，来袭？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impending risk of a government shutdown in the U.S. as a temporary spending bill approaches its deadline, which could exacerbate market volatility amid existing trade tensions and inflation concerns [2][4][6]. Group 1: Government Shutdown Concerns - The U.S. federal government is facing a potential shutdown as the temporary spending bill, which was passed last year, is set to expire on March 14 [4][7]. - A new temporary funding bill proposed by House Speaker Mike Johnson aims to extend government funding until September 30, but its passage is uncertain due to lack of Democratic support [5][6]. - Historical context shows that government shutdowns have occurred over 20 times, with the longest lasting 34 days, resulting in an estimated loss of $3 billion [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Volatility - Recent trade policy fluctuations under President Trump have led to significant sell-offs in the stock market, with the S&P 500 index dropping 3.1% and the Nasdaq down 3.5% in a week [2][9]. - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index has surged to its highest level since the end of last year, indicating increased market anxiety [10]. - Analysts predict that market volatility will persist due to uncertainties surrounding economic and trade policies [10]. Group 3: Inflation Data and Economic Implications - Concerns are rising that Trump's tariff policies may further increase inflationary pressures, with the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report being a focal point for investors [11]. - Analysts expect a 0.3% month-over-month increase in the February CPI, which could trigger further market sell-offs if inflation accelerates [11][12]. - High CPI data could undermine expectations for Federal Reserve easing, raising fears of "stagflation," where economic growth slows while inflation rises [12].