几天后，又一颗美国“市场大雷”将引爆

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impending risk of a U.S. government shutdown due to funding issues, highlighting the political tensions between the Republican and Democratic parties and the potential economic impacts of such a shutdown on investors and the market [2][3][4]. Political Dynamics - The House Republicans have proposed a spending bill that needs majority support to pass, but the Democrats largely oppose it, potentially to shift the blame for a government shutdown onto the Republicans [3][5]. - President Trump has called for Republican unity to support a spending bill that maintains current spending levels while increasing defense and veterans' healthcare funding [5][6]. - The bill faces challenges in the House due to narrow Republican control and requires at least 60 votes in the Senate, where Republicans hold only 53 seats [7][8]. Economic Implications - A government shutdown could lead to significant disruptions, including the suspension of pay for federal employees and delays in key economic reports, which may impact GDP growth by reducing it by 0.4 percentage points in the first quarter [11][12]. - Approximately 850,000 federal employees may be forced to take unpaid leave, and inflation could temporarily rise due to the absence of these workers from the economic output [12][13]. Historical Context and Market Reactions - Historically, government shutdowns have led to increased market volatility in the short term, but the S&P 500 has shown resilience, averaging a 12.7% increase in the 12 months following a shutdown [15][16]. - The current market context is complicated by existing trade tensions, with the S&P 500 down nearly 2% and the Nasdaq down about 6% this year, alongside a 35% increase in the VIX index, indicating rising investor anxiety [4][17]. - Analysts suggest that while the political situation is tense, the focus should remain on corporate earnings growth rather than the noise from Washington [20].