深度 | 对等关税，影响了谁？——特朗普经济学系列之十三【财通宏观•陈兴团队】

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Trump's proposal for a "fair reciprocal trade plan" aimed at imposing equal tariffs on trade partners to address perceived trade imbalances and enhance U.S. economic security and job creation [1][4][20] Group 1: Reasons for Proposing "Reciprocal Tariffs" - Trump believes that many countries impose unequal tariffs on U.S. goods, putting American companies at a competitive disadvantage [4] - The proposal aims to correct trade imbalances and create more jobs in the U.S. [4] - Key considerations for imposing reciprocal tariffs include high tariffs imposed by other countries, unfair taxes like digital service taxes, non-tariff barriers, and currency manipulation [5][20] Group 2: Assessment of Tariff Inequality - The concept of "excess tariffs" is defined as the extent to which tariffs imposed by other economies on U.S. imports exceed those imposed by the U.S. on their exports [7] - Contrary to expectations, most economies do not impose significantly higher tariffs on U.S. goods, with China facing the highest tariffs from the U.S. [7][9] - As of February, the U.S. tariffs on China were 12% higher than those China imposes on U.S. goods, indicating that China is disproportionately affected [7][9] Group 3: Impact on Specific Industries - If reciprocal tariffs are specifically targeted at China, industries such as textiles, light manufacturing, and electronics may be significantly impacted [11][12] - The textile and apparel industry is particularly vulnerable, with China's tariffs on U.S. imports exceeding those imposed by the U.S. [11][13] - Key products like computers and accessories, toys, and fans are likely to face higher tariffs, with an example being a 25% tariff on U.S. laptops imported into China [13] Group 4: Advantages for Chinese Industries - If reciprocal tariffs are applied uniformly across all trade partners, many Chinese export industries could benefit due to lower tariffs compared to those imposed by other countries [14][15] - The electronics and machinery sectors are highlighted as having significant potential advantages, as they represent a large share of China's exports to the U.S. [15][19] - Industries such as power equipment, knitting, and chemical fibers also show strong potential advantages in the context of reciprocal tariffs [18][19]